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Research first published in 2008 that was based on studying a group of 2,442 subjects who were free of type 2 diabetes at the beginning of the study found that fasting glucose tests were a very poor predictor of who in this group would develop diabetes.
The researchers found that people whose one hour glucose tolerance test results were over 155 mg/dl and who had markers for metabolic syndrome--such as a concentration of fat around the belly and high blood pressure were those who were more accurately predicted to be likely to develop diabetes.
Fasting Versus Postload Plasma Glucose Concentration and the Risk for Future Type 2 Diabetes Muhammad A. Abdul-Ghani et al. Diabetes Care 32:281-286, 2009 DOI: 10.2337/dc08-1264